Halifax Population Growth vs. Housing Supply: What the 2025 Numbers Mean for Development

Halifax has been one of the fastest-growing cities in Canada, and the gap between how many people arrive and how many homes get built has defined the region's housing conversation for several years. The story is no longer simply "growth outpaces supply." As of mid-2026, the more accurate read is a market where population growth has moderated, construction has accelerated sharply, and the binding constraints have shifted from "is anyone building?" to "what can each parcel actually support, and how fast can it be delivered?"

This is the question a development firm answers for a living. At Helio, we compute the optimal development a given parcel of land can support under current zoning and code, then develop it end-to-end. So when we look at the supply-demand picture, we read it through one lens: where is the entitled, buildable capacity, and what gets in the way of realizing it? Below is the verified 2024–2025 data, sourced to primary records, and what it implies for anyone weighing a project in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM).

Population growth: still rising, but slower

Statistics Canada's population estimates put the Halifax census metropolitan area (CMA) at 544,834 people as of July 1, 2025, a 1.6% increase over the prior year [1]. That is meaningful growth — but it is a noticeably slower pace than the peak years. For the year ending July 1, 2024, Nova Scotia's CMA population (effectively Halifax, the province's only CMA) grew 2.3% [2], and the years before that ran hotter still.

The deceleration is the headline that often gets lost. Halifax is still adding people every year, but the surge that drove vacancy rates to historic lows has eased. International migration remains the primary engine of growth, while interprovincial flows — which had been a strong tailwind for Atlantic Canada since 2018–2019 — have moderated or turned to net losses in the most recent period [1].

For development feasibility, the takeaway is not "demand is gone." It is that the demand curve is still firmly upward, but the panic-buying conditions of 2022–2023 have normalized somewhat. A parcel evaluated today should be underwritten against durable, structural demand rather than the spike.

The supply response: starts have accelerated hard

The more dramatic shift is on the supply side. After years of lagging, construction in Halifax has moved sharply. CMHC reports that the Halifax CMA recorded roughly 7,000 housing starts in 2025, up about 38% from 5,081 in 2024, with the gains concentrated in multi-unit housing (multi-unit starts up roughly 45%) [3]. Province-wide, Nova Scotia logged 8,732 starts in 2025, a 31% increase [3].

That is not a market standing still. As of October 2025, more than 13,000 housing units were reported under construction in the Halifax area, with starts up about 32% year-to-date over the same period in 2024 [4]. The supply pipeline is now substantial, and the multi-unit tilt matters: it reflects exactly the "missing middle" and purpose-built rental forms the region needs most.

The picture, then, is a population that is still growing (more slowly) meeting a supply response that is finally moving (quickly). The gap is narrowing — but it was deep, and the pipeline takes years to deliver.

The rental market: pressure easing, not gone

Rental conditions track this rebalancing. CMHC's data show Halifax's apartment vacancy rate rose to 2.1% in 2024, up from the historic-low ~1% range that prevailed in 2021–2023, as new supply came online [5]. Rent growth also cooled materially: average rent growth fell to 3.8% in 2024, down from about 11% in 2023 — the largest year-over-year deceleration among Canada's major markets [5].

Two things are true at once. Vacancy is loosening and rent growth is slowing — both genuine improvements for renters. And affordability remains strained, because the increases of the prior years compounded onto a low base. CMHC's more recent commentary notes that Halifax's affordability ratios have deteriorated toward levels seen in much larger markets [5].

A regulatory fact frames the rental side directly: Nova Scotia's temporary rent cap limits annual increases for existing tenancies to a maximum of 5% per year, and it is in effect through December 31, 2027 (as of 2026-06-22) [6]. A landlord may increase rent only once in any 12-month period and must give at least four months' written notice [6]. For anyone modelling rental income on an existing or stabilizing building, the cap is a hard input — not a forecast assumption.

Why the gap was so hard to close: cost, code, and capacity

Understanding why supply lagged for so long matters, because the same frictions still govern how fast new projects deliver.

Construction cost is the first. CMHC's own Housing Design Catalogue, on a Halifax basis (Q1 2025), estimates hard construction costs for small multi-unit buildings at roughly $217,000 to $387,000 per unit — a sixplex around $217,000–$271,000 per unit, a fourplex around $236,000–$358,000, and stacked townhouses around $260,000–$387,000 [7]. Those are hard costs only: they include the general contractor's overhead and profit but exclude land, financing, soft costs, and developer profit, and CMHC advises adding a 5–10% contingency [7]. Industry voices in Nova Scotia have characterized building costs as having roughly doubled since 2020 [8]. On top of hard cost, new construction carries HST — 14% in Nova Scotia as of April 1, 2025, down from 15% [9] — though purpose-built rental can recover a substantial share through federal and provincial rebates (more on that below).

Labour capacity is the second. CMHC's Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report warns that skilled-labour shortages threaten Halifax's supply momentum, with many builders operating near full capacity — pointing to more project delays and postponements [10]. When the trades are fully booked, the binding constraint on the next unit is not demand or even financing; it is who can physically build it and when.

Municipal charges and process are the third. Halifax Water levies a Regional Development Charge of $5,405.81 per unit for multiple-unit dwellings and $8,048.66 per unit for single units and townhouses (effective April 1, 2024, frozen at 2023 levels) [11]. HRM building permit fees for new residential buildings of four units or fewer are charged per square metre of floor area — $4.04/m² at or above grade, with a $31.25 minimum [12]. None of these are deal-breakers individually, but they accumulate, and the review timelines (HRM residential reviews commonly run several weeks, multi-unit several months, depending on application completeness) compound the carrying cost of capital before a shovel moves [12].

The policy lever that changed the math: as-of-right density

The single most consequential change to Halifax's supply capacity is regulatory, and it is recent. Under the municipality's Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) planning amendments, a minimum of four dwelling units is now permitted as-of-right on every centrally serviced residential lot in HRM, effective June 13, 2024 [13]. Inside the Regional Centre, the reforms went further: the new ER-3 zone permits up to eight dwelling units per lot (lot-size dependent), including fourplexes, low-rise multi-unit buildings of five to eight units, and townhouses, with a maximum building height of 11 metres plus a 3-metre pitched-roof exemption [14].

"As-of-right" is the operative phrase. It means a compliant project can proceed by development permit without a discretionary rezoning or development agreement — removing months of uncertainty and political risk from the front of a project [15]. For a property owner, the practical effect is that a lot that could legally hold one or two units two years ago may now support four, six, or eight. That is a change in what the land can become, and it is exactly the input that drives a feasibility study.

The reform is not unlimited. The four-unit allowance in the Urban Service Area deliberately excludes the African Nova Scotian Beechville community [16], minimum lot sizes and built-form controls remain zone-specific [14], and the Regional Centre's higher-order and Centre zones set their tallest permitted heights per precinct rather than by a single number [17]. The point of a feasibility analysis is to resolve those parcel-specific facts before any capital is committed — not to assume a generic maximum.

Financing and incentives that improve the supply equation

Several programs materially change whether a given project pencils, and they are worth naming precisely because they tilt toward exactly the multi-unit rental forms Halifax needs.

• Purpose-Built Rental Housing (PBRH) GST/HST rebate. Qualifying new purpose-built rental housing can recover 100% of the federal GST (or 5% federal part of HST), up to $35,000 per unit, with no phase-out [18]. Nova Scotia mirrors this with a 100% rebate of the provincial 9% part of HST on qualifying purpose-built rental [19]. For a rental project, this removes a large share of the tax load that would otherwise sit on top of hard cost.
• CMHC Apartment Construction Loan Program (ACLP). A $55-billion program providing low-interest, fully repayable construction loans for purpose-built rental, with terms including up to 100% loan-to-cost on the residential component and amortizations up to 50 years, for projects of at least five units [20].
• CMHC MLI Select. Mortgage loan insurance for multi-unit projects that awards points across affordability, accessibility, and energy efficiency to unlock reduced premiums, higher leverage, and longer amortization (minimum five units) [21].
• Accelerated capital cost allowance. New eligible purpose-built rental buildings qualify for a 10% CCA rate (versus the usual 4% Class 1 rate) where construction begins on or after April 16, 2024 and before 2031 [22].

These instruments do not lower construction cost, but they substantially improve the financing and after-tax economics of building rental — which is precisely why the multi-unit share of starts has surged.

(All program and tax figures above are current as of 2026-06-22; incentive programs change, and any project should confirm live terms with the administering authority before relying on them.)

What this means for a parcel today

Read together, the verified data tell a coherent story. Population growth continues but has moderated. Supply has finally accelerated, led by multi-unit construction. Rents and vacancy are easing off their extremes while affordability stays tight. And the regulatory environment — through as-of-right density and a stack of rental-focused financing — has meaningfully expanded what is legal and financeable to build.

The constraint has shifted from whether to build to what and how efficiently. The most important variable for any specific piece of land is no longer a citywide statistic; it is the parcel's own zoning envelope, its servicing, its built-form limits, and the cost of realizing the maximum it can support. Two adjacent lots can carry very different capacities depending on which zone they fall in, their area and frontage, and precinct-specific height rules.

That is the work of feasibility: translating the macro picture — growth, starts, rents, code, incentives — into a defensible answer for one address. Helio computes the optimal development a parcel can support and develops it from there, on land the client owns, with construction delivered by established builders. In a market where the supply gap is narrowing but the cost of getting it wrong is high, the value is in being precise about what a specific parcel can become — not in repeating the headline.

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Sources

1. Statistics Canada — The Daily: Canada's population estimates, Subprovincial areas, 2025 (Halifax CMA 544,834, July 1, 2025; +1.6%). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260114/dq260114a-eng.htm
2. Statistics Canada — The Daily: Canada's population estimates, Subprovincial areas, 2024 (Nova Scotia CMA population 530,167, July 1, 2024; +2.3%). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250116/dq250116b-eng.htm
3. CMHC — Housing starts, December 2025 / full-year 2025 (Halifax CMA ~7,000 starts, +38%; NS 8,732, +31%). https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-december-2025
4. CBC News, reporting CMHC data (Oct 2025) — >13,000 units under construction in Halifax; starts +32% YTD. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/halifax-housing-starts-2025-october-9.6994899
5. CMHC — Historic rental supply growth raises Canada's vacancy rate / 2024 Rental Market Report (Halifax vacancy 2.1% in 2024; rent growth 3.8%, down from 11% in 2023). https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2024/historic-rental-supply-growth-raises-canada-vacancy-rate
6. Government of Nova Scotia — Rent Cap Facts (5% cap through Dec 31, 2027; once-per-12-months; 4 months' notice). https://novascotia.ca/residential-tenancies-tenants-and-landlords/docs/rent-cap-facts-en.pdf
7. CMHC — Housing Design Catalogue: Construction Cost Estimate Summary (Atlantic) (Halifax basis, Q1 2025; hard cost ~$217K–$387K/unit; hard costs only). https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/housing%20catalog/resources/hdc-construction-cost-estimate-summary-atlantic-en.pdf
8. CBC News, quoting the Construction Association of Nova Scotia (Oct 2025) — building costs roughly doubled since 2020. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/halifax-housing-starts-2025-october-9.6994899
9. Canada Revenue Agency — GST/HST Notice 342: Nova Scotia HST Rate Decrease (14% effective April 1, 2025). https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/forms-publications/publications/notice342/nova-scotia-hst-rate-decrease-questions-answers-general-transitional-rules-personal-property-services.html
10. CMHC — Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report (skilled-labour shortage; builders near full capacity). https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/spring-2026-housing-supply-report
11. Halifax Water — Regional Development Charge ($5,405.81/unit multi-unit; $8,048.66/unit single/townhouse; eff. April 1, 2024). https://www.halifaxwater.ca/regional-development-charge
12. Halifax Regional Municipality — Permit Fees (Administrative Order #15) and Building & Development Permits ($4.04/m² at/above grade; $31.25 min; review timelines per municipal practice). https://www.halifax.ca/home-property/building-development-permits/permit-fees
13. Halifax Regional Municipality — Recent changes to planning documents for housing (HAF) (four units as-of-right on centrally serviced lots, effective June 13, 2024). https://www.halifax.ca/about-halifax/regional-community-planning/housing-accelerator-fund/urgent-changes-planning-0
14. Halifax Regional Municipality — ER Zones Fact Sheet (June 2024) (ER-3 up to 8 units; 11 m + 3 m pitched-roof exemption; built-form controls). https://cdn.halifax.ca/sites/default/files/documents/about-the-city/regional-community-planning/er-zones-fact-sheet-june-2024.pdf
15. Halifax Regional Municipality Charter (Nova Scotia) — as-of-right development by permit vs. development agreement / rezoning. https://nslegislature.ca/sites/default/files/legc/statutes/halifax%20regional%20municipality%20charter.pdf
16. Halifax Regional Municipality — HAF / Timberlea-Lakeside-Beechville amendments (Beechville community carve-out). https://www.halifax.ca/about-halifax/regional-community-planning/housing-accelerator-fund/urgent-changes-planning-0
17. Halifax Regional Municipality — Regional Centre Land Use By-law (Centre / higher-order zone heights set per precinct). https://www.halifax.ca/media/75717
18. Canada Revenue Agency — GST/HST Purpose-Built Rental Housing (PBRH) Rebate (100% federal; up to $35,000/unit). https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/businesses/topics/gst-hst-businesses/gst-hst-rebates/purpose-built-rental-housing.html
19. Government of Nova Scotia, Department of Finance — Purpose-Built Rental Housing Rebate (100% of the 9% provincial part of HST). https://novascotia.ca/finance/en/home/taxation/tax101/harmonizedsalestax/purpose-built-rental-housing-rebate.html
20. CMHC — Apartment Construction Loan Program: Standard Rental Housing ($55B program; up to 100% LTC residential; up to 50-yr amortization; min 5 units). https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/project-funding-and-mortgage-financing/funding-programs/all-funding-programs/apartment-construction-loan-program/standard-rental-housing
21. CMHC — MLI Select (points-based multi-unit mortgage loan insurance; min 5 units). https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/project-funding-and-mortgage-financing/mortgage-loan-insurance/multi-unit-insurance/mliselect
22. Budget 2024 — Tax Measures: Supplementary Information (10% accelerated CCA for new purpose-built rental; construction on/after April 16, 2024). https://www.budget.canada.ca/2024/report-rapport/tm-mf-en.html